July 2018 DHA Lahore Property Market Report (RMP) by Estate 4U

Disclaimer:  MRA (Monthly Real Estate Analysis) – July 2018 DHA Lahore Property Market Report is a general guideline and does not cover all aspects of the market. The real estate trends vary even within blocks of the same phase and for a layman it gets very complicated and confusing.

Present Market Condition

The real estate market continued to grow steadily in the past month of June and generally remained stable except some downside in commercial files of DHA. The Dollar price has risen against PKR and that is a major change in the prices for expats. Technically in other words property in Pakistan has dropped by at least 5% against dollar. Some would say that dollar may go up more but no one can ever be one hundred percent sure. However from past experiences one should know that any further sharp increase in dollar is not expected any time soon and can possibly reach 1 USD = 130 PKR in one year time. So the question of the month is should we be investing in real estate when we see USD appreciating in times to come. First of all we are not sure if USD will increase and change in Govt in Pakistan after General elections of 2018 may actually help PKR against the USD, secondly 1 Lacs USD would increase by 7 to 10 lacs even if we imagine that USD will go higher against PKR and in real estate sector we may find property prices rising by more than 20 to 30 Lacs in the same time period in selected areas. So it all comes down to your personal risk appetite and weather you have foreign assets in USD or not.

The alternate view is that the US – China trade war may actually harm the dollar in days to come , this is an excellent read and therefore i would suggest that do not base your decisions on the USD vs PKR prices as they are a totally different market with totally different dynamics.

DHA Phase 1 to 5

Goldcrest DHA Lahore Mall and Residency project is out performing my expectations, the one bed and two bed apartments are all sold out and on resale the demand is almost 18000 per sqft. I will share a video update very soon on the development of the project as finishing work has started on the ground floor and i can see that the commercial possession will be given before the end of this year hopefully. This is the first mall of DHA Lahore and is awaited by the residents with great optimism.

DHA Phase 6

Same as last month. DHA Lahore Phase 6 remains stable as usual and continues to grow slowly. The MB plot prices on the main road are on the higher side with a demand of 110 Million to 120 Million and are stable for now. The last plot sold on the main road was for 105 Million. Phase 6 is an ideal phase if you are looking for rental returns, homes and business along with capital growth in both residential and commercial sector. E block Ext possession is expected in a couple of months and may provide a window for short term trades.

Recommendation

a. Buy residential plots in DHA Lahore phase 6 for safe investment as it will continue to grow steadily over the years.

b. Good opportunity to buy commercial on Main MB in front of N and L Blocks of Phase 6 and P block of Phase 7.

DHA Phase 7

DHA Lahore Phase 7 are now stable and no further downside is expected now. 4 Marla commercial file is at its lowest in years and may be a good short term trade.

5 Marla residential files are a good opportunity as well to buy under 35 Lacs.

Recommendation

a. Phase 7 is not really the best investment option but is most suitable if you have limited budget to construct a house. Now it is making some sense to invest in Phase 7 at lower prices, especially if you plan to hold it for a year or more.

b. Buying 5 Marla file between 34 to 36 Lacs is a good investment if you are looking for small investment opportunities.

DHA Phase 8

Phase 8 is the safest bet in DHA Lahore as more and more houses keep popping up. This is one place where you are hundred percent sure that prices will go higher in couple of years. The location of Phase 8 far supersedes that of Phase 9 Prism or any other Phase of DHA Lahore. Broadway commercial has been stable and no major change is expected any times soon, it still remains my favorite long term commercial investment. Ex Park view of Phase 8 is a great option for genuine buyers and the prices are still my favorite for a 2 Kanal plot. Reasonably good plot is available in almost 400 lacs and i believe it is the best area in entire DHA Lahore to buy a 2 Kanal plot in this price. 4 Marla commercial files of Ex Park View are at its lowest in 3 years, i was not expecting it to drop as low as 225 Lacs but now you can buy it in this price. Probably delays in the balloting is spreading negative vibes in the market, however this is just a signal to buy at lower prices. For those who have purchased this in the past my recommendation is to hold it till prices go up near 300 Lacs. The drop in files prices sometimes can be an artificial drop to avail an opportunity to buy on lower prices from investors. Such phenomenon are very common and you will see that often if you are a file trader. Z Ivy green is now on the downside and we may see slight improvement in months to come, if you have an investment capital of 10 Million, this may be the right time to buy a plot of 1 Kanal in Z Ivy green as its possession is expected in 2019 max.

Recommendation

a. We strongly recommend to buy residential plots for investment or if you wish to make your own house.

b. Buy 4 Marla ShivPur or MalikPur files in Phase 8 Ex Park View anywhere between 220 to 250 Lacs.

c. We will now recommend you to buy 4 Marla commercial between 400 to 500 Lacs and 8 Marla between 750 to 950 Lacs in good areas of Broadway.

DHA Phase 9 Town

9 Town is on all time high and time to sell for those who invested in short term. It may give 5 to 15% more in a year but i will not consider it as a great investment at these prices. Best is to buy plots with a price tag of 6 Million for max returns.

Recommendation

a. Prices may rise higher but presently they offer optimum returns since i gave a signal to buy 7 months back and if you have purchased since Oct 2017 now i will recommend selling out and exiting safely with max profits if the only purpose of your investment was to make money. Those of you who have purchased at higher prices, you may wait for a few more months before an exit.

DHA Phase 9 Prism

9 prism is a good investment for long term perspective only as the prices have risen again by 5 to 10%, i would wait a bit for prices to go down again to buy again.

Commercial prices on the other hand are high in 9 Prism and are totally inflated, even if they don’t go down much they are not expected to rise as well so will be a dead investment for a few years.

Recommendation

a. Hold it for long term or sell during an upswing.

b. Buying is recommended at this time for long term investment only.

DHA Phase 10

Trading again between 52 to 55 Lacs and not at all a buy zone for us. Predicting about Phase 10 may be hard at this time however it is a good investment at 45 Lacs and below.

Recommendation

It is better to wait now for prices to slip and make a short term trade, if it reached 45 Lacs.

DHA Phase 11 Rahbar

DHA Lahore is marketing about the balloting of DHA Rahbar, however it has not announced an exact date. I do see commercial investment as the best option when it comes to Rahbar if you have 20 Million as of today.

Recommendation

a. We recommend buying 4 Marla commercial at 190 Lacs for a Short term investment.

b. The residential file however is trading at 30 Lacs which is again not a very attractive price for investment.

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